Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Schularick and Taylor on Credit Booms

A recent article provides a fascinating history of credit booms:
Schularick, Moritz and Alan Taylor. 2012. “Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises,” American Economic Review 102.2: 1029–1061.
One suggestion is that post-1945 macroeconomic stabilisation has prevented the “strong Fisherian debt deflation mechanism” that was seen in pre-1945 business cycles (Schularick and Taylor 2012: 1032).

Broadly, this seems to support Minsky’s and Kindleberger’s view of financial crises as induced by credit booms where intense speculation on asset prices has occurred (Schularick and Taylor 2012: 1032).

The lesson is that the direction of credit and financial regulation are very important.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Schularick, Moritz and Alan Taylor. 2012. “Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises,” American Economic Review 102.2: 1029–1061.

1 comment:

  1. But what kind of regulation?

    Highere capital/asset ratios? Less leverage?
    Restrictions on lending? Floors and Ceilings on interest rates? (That didn't work so well. :-) )

    All that is really needed is for the government to do its job after the bubble bursts and not let A.D. fall off a cliff.

    ReplyDelete